By Adam Brownstein // Tokyo, Japan // March 29, 2026
On Risk
One hazy Saturday morning in the early summer of 2017 my wife informed me that she was off with her mother to look at land on which to build a house. Her non-chalant tone belied serious intent; looking at land meant possibly buying land. And buying land surely meant building a house. And building a house definitely meant living in Japan for a while. This was all well and good with me, since I love my wife and love Tokyo. There are, after all, few better places in the world to call home.
Subsequently I was invited to vet some of the parcels of land in our neighborhood. My wife and I were shepherded around by a young real estate agent named Mr. Yamamoto. He had all of the hallmarks of someone rising slowly and deliberately in his trade. Spikey hair, pointy patent leather shoes, Aoyama Tailors polyblend black suit and a nervous laugh in response to almost everything I said. I expect he had not had many gaijin clients before me.
In between site visits while seated in the back of the blue Meibu Real Estate company Prius, I inquired about the general trend of land value in the area. Was it going up? If yes (hopefully yes) but what % each year. Despite the simple nature of my question, Yamamoto-san began to squirm. He made many noises and motions, but issued no words. Presently, he began to scratch the back of his head and neck with great vigor, sucking air through his pursed lips. I suspected that my question had made Mr. Yamamoto nervous. My wife’s elbow, defly penetrating my fourth and fifth right ribs, confirmed my intuition.
Finally, the land broker spoke.
“Well,” he demurred. “The value will very likely not go down.”
My initial sentiment was disappointment, born purely of greed. But it gave way to a feeling of fascination. Growing up in America, I had always been drawn to the idea of risk and reward. It had led me to leave a cushy corporate job in favor of starting a software company. Like many startups, the early days were marked by failure, but with a bit of gumption and a large measure of good luck, it all worked out.
In Japan, the mindset is unabashedly risk-off. It has the highest participation in the world on life insurance premiums. Unlike their Korean neighbors, Japanese travelers prefer domestic trips for fear of dangerous destinations like “Thailand.” And in real estate the assurance of no downside is prized above the prospect of appreciated value.
Japanese Proverb: 石橋を叩いて渡る (Ishi-bashi o tataite wataru) Translation: Knocking on a stone bridge before crossing it. Even though the bridge looks really sturdy, it’s better to touch each stone one-by-one while crossing it.
The Tokyo Yenta 